Coordinator: Prof. Gunilla Svensson

Climate models are the only available tool to make projections of our future climate. It is therefore of great importance that these models are able to simulate all central parts of the climate system with high credibility, including that the sensitivity to different kinds of forcing as precise as possible. The work within this core theme is based on three basic scientific approaches: i) Design of modeling experiments and analysis of the climate system; ii) Descriptions of key processes that are not resolved on the model grid; and iii) Evaluation of models with observations. Currently our main efforts follow four scientific tracks:

1: Circulation, variability and decadal predictability focuses on the dynamics of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, with a key question being whether climate change on the time scale of years to decades is at all predictable, and if so, how this can be achieved (also see projects under Core Theme 2).
2: Unresolved scales focuses on the long-standing problem of credible representation and description of important climate-controlling processes that occur on scales smaller than the scale of a model grid-box (also see projects under Core Theme 4).
3: Paleoclimate modelling focuses on testing hypotheses about the functional behaviour of the climate system under a range of environmental conditions (also see projects under Core Themes 1 and 2).
4: Arctic climate change focuses on the region which currently experiences the most rapid climate change, yet houses the least known and understood subsystems and processes (also see projects under all other Core Themes).

The core theme on modelling was formally added to the Bolin Centre January 1, 2010, in response to significantly enhanced funding from the Swedish Government. The Rossby Centre at SMHI and Department of Mechanics at KTH are contributing partners in this endeavor. We are currently strengthening this research by a number of new positions, see http://www.bbcc.su.se/available-positions. For current modeling activities, please see modeling projects under the other core themes.